Dynamic analysis on fisheries resources in Zhoushan Fishing Ground

Based on the investigation on the fluctuation of the catch and catch per unit effort ( CPUE) in Zhoushan Fishing Ground during the period from 1952 to 2001, it is showed that the catch and CPUE can be illustrated by determinacy tendency and stationary random sequence. Combining the determinacy tendency models w ith ARMA( p q) models, the complex models were built to describe the dynamics of f isheries resources. The stages of the f isheries resources f luctuation were divided. The utilization extent of f isheries resources was discussed and the f isheries managing measures were propounded.