基于多源数据与INLA-贝叶斯时空模型的东海小黄鱼CPUE标准化

CPUE standardization of small yellow croaker (Larimichthys polyactis) in the East China Sea using an INLA-based Bayesian spatio-temporal model and multi-source data

  • 摘要:
    目的 解决多网具混合渔业中因渔具选择性、环境异质性及数据来源差异导致的单位捕捞努力量渔获量(CPUE)标准化问题,获得更加稳健的渔业资源丰度指数。
    方法 实验以东海小黄鱼为对象,根据2010—2023年东海多网具商业捕捞数据和独立渔业的资源调查数据,构建了基于集成嵌套拉普拉斯近似(INLA)框架的贝叶斯时空广义线性混合模型(INLA-GLMM),通过纳入时空随机效应、环境变量以及网具与环境变量的交互项,比较了独立时空场与共享时空场两种空间结构,以及网具联合建模与网具单独建模两种数据整合策略的差异。
    结果 独立空间随机效应模型的拟合优度显著优于共享空间模型,且包含网具与环境交互项的线性模型(M1)拟合最优,其DIC和WAIC值分别为7 786和7 838;多网具联合建模策略有效降低了单一数据源的随机误差,丰度指数比单数据源模型更为稳健;空间随机效应揭示了小黄鱼资源分布的空间异质性,东海北部海域(30~33°N)呈现持续的正空间效应。
    结论 INLA-GLMM能够更真实地反映东海小黄鱼资源的时空变化规律,为多渔具复杂渔业的资源评估提供了科学依据与技术支撑。

     

    Abstract: Fishery-dependent and independent data each have strengths and limitations for estimating abundance indices. Commercial catch-per-unit-effort (CPUE) offers broad spatio-temporal coverage but suffers from gear selectivity and preferential sampling, while scientific surveys provide standardized sampling but limited coverage. Integrating these data sources is particularly challenging in mixed fisheries where multiple gear types with different selectivity patterns operate concurrently. Small yellow croaker (Larimichthys polyactis) in the East China Sea represents such a complex fishery, supporting important commercial fisheries while exhibiting strong spatio-temporal dynamics influenced by environmental conditions and gear-specific catchability. This study aimed to develop a robust CPUE standardization approach for small yellow croaker by integrating multi-gear commercial fishery data and scientific survey data within a Bayesian spatio-temporal modeling framework, evaluating alternative spatial structures and data integration strategies to obtain more reliable abundance indices for stock assessment. We analyzed 39 434 commercial fishing records from 158 vessels operating in September during 2010-2023, covering three major gear types: trawl, gillnet, and stow net, complemented by scientific survey data from 90~120 stations annually. An INLA-based Bayesian spatio-temporal generalized linear mixed model with gamma distribution and log-link was developed, incorporating year effects, gear effects, environmental covariates (depth, distance to coast, bottom temperature, bottom salinity), and their interactions. Models with independent spatial fields substantially outperformed shared spatial field models for both commercial and survey data, with the optimal model (M1) including independent spatial fields, linear environmental effects, and gear-environment interactions achieving the lowest DIC (7 786) and WAIC (7 838) values. Gamma distribution provided superior predictive performance (R2=0.76, RMSE=616) compared to lognormal distribution (R2=0.65, RMSE=784). Gear-environment interactions significantly improved model fit, revealing differential environmental responses: salinity positively affected all gears but most strongly influenced trawl catch rates (effect size 0.262), while distance to coast showed negative effects on trawl (-0.259) and stow net (-0.129) but negligible effects on gillnet. Spatial random effects revealed persistent positive anomalies in the northern East China Sea (30~33°N), indicating this region as core habitat not fully explained by environmental covariates. Annual abundance indices from integrated modeling showed pronounced interannual variability, with peaks in 2015 and notable declines during 2016—2020, followed by recovery in 2022-2023. The INLA-GLMM framework with independent spatio-temporal fields effectively disentangles gear-specific catchability, environmental effects, and true abundance variation, providing a robust foundation for stock assessment and fisheries management of this important species.

     

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