基于生物经济模型的中国花鲈养殖投苗策略比较

A comparative study of Lateolabrax maculatus aquaculture seeding strategies based on bio-economic modelling

  • 摘要:
    目的 为提高水产养殖的经济效益,需切实把握所养品种的生物经济规律。
    方法 以中国花鲈为例,基于入户访谈数据,结合文献研究成果,建立了一个多批次非均匀周期的线性规划生物经济模型,并将养殖中常见的11月(头批)、12月(中批)、3—4月(尾批)单批次和不同批次投苗组合策略进行参数化情景模拟,寻求最优的养殖策略。
    结果 ①发现一般而言,不同批次投苗组合策略优于单批次投苗策略,仅在后者有价格优势或是产量优势的情况下才会出现例外;②与采用单批次投苗策略相比,养殖者采用不同批次组合的投苗策略可以分散养殖过程中的现金流,加快资金回流,降低不确定性风险;③养殖净现值对养殖生产中的销售单价、养殖密度和瞬时死亡率等参数高度敏感。
    结论 综合考虑产量、价格和现金流,在6个同质化池塘中以1个池塘养殖头批、0个池塘养殖中批、5个池塘养殖尾批的投苗策略(1_0_5)及以6个池塘全部养殖中批的投苗策略(0_6_0)为中国花鲈养殖的投苗优选策略;在这两种策略中,无论尾批价格波动情况如何,都能保证较高的产量和良好的现金流入。本研究初步揭示了中国花鲈养殖的生物经济规律,为后续相关研究提供基础,也为该品种养殖业的利益相关者提供决策支持依据。

     

    Abstract: In order to improve the economic benefits of aquaculture, it is important for famers to fully understand the bio-economic laws of the species which is farmed. Taking Lateolabrax maculatus as an example, based on household interview data and results from literatures, a multi-batch non-uniform cycle linear programming bio-economic model was established, and the common November (early batch), December (middle batch), March-April (last batch) single batch and different batch seedling combination strategies in breeding were simulated in parameterized scenarios to seek the optimal breeding strategy. The study found that: ① Generally speaking, the combination strategy of different batches of seedlings is better than the single batch of seedlings, and exceptions will only occur when the latter has a price advantage or yield advantage; ② Compared with the strategy of using a single batch of seedlings, the strategy of using different batches of seedlings can disperse the cash flow in the breeding process, speed up the return of funds, and reduce uncertainty risks; ③ The net present value of aquaculture is very sensitive to the changes of such parameters as the unit price of sales, the density of aquaculture and the instantaneous mortality in aquaculture production. Considering the yield, the product price and cash flow together, (1 _ 0 _ 5) and (0 _ 6 _ 0) are the optimal strategies for seedling feeding, which can guarantee higher yield and more cash inflow than other strategies no matter how the price fluctuates at the end of the batch. This research preliminarily revealed the bio-economic laws of L. maculatus farming, provides a basis for subsequent related research, and also provides decision-making support for stakeholders in the L. maculatus farming industry.

     

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